Preparing for the political storm

IT’S NOT EVERY day the chief political operative for one of the nation’s major parties spills his game plan for an upcoming election. Yet that’s exactly what President Bush’s top political adviser and Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove apparently did last week.

In a speech in Washington Rove declared that the 2006 midterm election campaign would be focused on security – and that Democrats were locked in a “pre-9/11” worldview.

While you might think Rove has made an uncharacteristic mistake by showing his cards before the other side has even looked at theirs, you’d be wrong to assume that he’s given his opponents anything they can actually work with.

There’s no doubt the Republicans will make national security the focal point of their political efforts this year. After all, what else could they do? They’re certainly not going to run on a platform of ethics after the Plame and Abramoff scandals.

Rove admitted as much in his speech, warning Republicans not to adopt an “entitlement mentality” – perhaps the very mentality that led to the corruption now being uncovered in the affairs of lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his merry band of friends.

Now here’s a free pointer for Democratic strategists. “National security” equals Iraq.

If the Republicans can continue to convince the American public that combat operations in the country are critical to preventing terrorist attacks they’re likely to retain their majority in Congress and the Senate.

If you’re trying to retake Congress you’ve got to hit hard and often on this issue.

Now, don’t get me wrong. I think the potentially strongest issue for Democrats in coming years will be healthcare, particularly with baby-boomers approaching the age where they’re going to need lots of it.

Most analysts seem to believe our current healthcare system will need at least a few changes to cope with the increased demand and possibly reduced financial capabilities of the patients.

The Democrats need to keep bringing up healthcare and their other traditionally strong issues like Social Security (remember President Bush’s failed privatization plan?) and worker protections (there’s a bunch of dead miners in West Virginia).

But no matter what else you talk about Iraq is still the metaphorical 800-pound elephant in the room.

A RECENT ZOGBY international poll found while sixty-one percent of Republicans approve of President Bush’s handling of the war, only eleven percent of Democrats and twenty-eight percent of independents agreed.

While Democrats are unlikely to ever vote for GOP candidates, Karl Rove is no doubt worried that independents, who generally cast the “deciding votes” in elections seem to be straying from Republicans on their biggest issue. The good news for him is that 2006 is just like the 2004 election – all he really needs is fifty-one percent to win.

If the Democrats are smart they’ll adopt Rove’s most famous tactic and attack the Republicans on their “biggest strength.”

Before that happens, though, be ready for a campaign season full of name-calling and attack ads calling the patriotism of certain candidates into question.

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