The Fresno State Bulldogs picked up a critical win against the Boise State Broncos on Nov. 1 to help save their hopes of winning a Mountain West title. Along with the win, the Bulldogs received some help from other Mountain West games in Week 10.
The New Mexico Lobos defeated the University of Nevada, Las Vegas Rebels 40-35 in a classic shootout. The Lobos have been a surprise team in the Mountain West under head coach Jason Eck. They were predicted to finish in 11th place in the 12-team Mountain West.
With the victory, the Lobos handed the Rebels a crucial second loss in conference play.
The San Jose State Spartans also helped out the ‘Dogs on Saturday by defeating the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 45-38. The Spartans have had trouble finding their footing this season, but the win over the Rainbow Warriors handed them a second conference loss.
The Bulldogs defeated the Rainbow Warriors on the island on Sept. 20. With a head-to-head victory, the ‘Dogs hold the tiebreaker over Hawaii. Both teams sit at 6-3 on the season and 3-2 in conference.
For any shot at a last Mountain West title, the Bulldogs will have to win out and finish the season 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference. The Bulldogs have a couple of pathways to secure a spot in the Mountain West title game.
Revenge match against the Aztecs
The most likely scenario for the ‘Dogs to reach the conference championship is pretty straightforward. San Diego State wins out and finishes the season 11-1, the Rebels have to pick up at least one more loss and the Bulldogs would be going down south to play the Aztecs for a second time this season.
This scenario hinges on the Rebels losing one more conference game this season. Without a third loss, the Rebels will have a better overall record at 10-2 and have the tiebreaker over the ‘Dogs.
The Rebels’ remaining opponents are the Colorado State Rams (2-6, 1-3), the Utah State Aggies (4-4, 2-2), the Rainbow Warriors (6-3, 3-2) and the University of Nevada, Reno Wolf Pack (1-7 0-4).
The most likely game for the Rebels to lose would be against the Rainbow Warriors, but Hawaii is just 2-2 when playing on the road, beating the Rams and the Air Force Falcons — two of the bottom-three teams in the Mountain West.
The Aggies could pose a threat to the Rebels, but they are even worse on the road, sitting at 0-4 on the season when traveling.
The ‘Dogs could end up hosting the Aztecs. The Aztecs would have to beat the Rainbow Warriors, and then lose their last three games against the Broncos, Spartans and Lobos.
The Broncos would also have to lose to the Rams and Aggies. If the Broncos are to win one or both of these games, they will make the conference championship.
Milk Can/Mountain West title for the second time in four years
While the Milk Can wouldn’t make the trip to Boise, the ‘Dogs could face the Broncos again on the blue turf for a Mountain West title.
Déjà vu from 2022.
This scenario is a little tougher to get to, but it would be a better matchup for the Bulldogs.
The Aztecs would have to lose to the Rainbow Warriors, the Broncos, and either the Spartans or Lobos to reach three conference losses. With their 23-0 victory over the Bulldogs, they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Again, the Rebels would have to lose one of their remaining games.
This scenario would have the Broncos and Bulldogs finish at 9-3, but the Broncos would host because they would finish with a better conference record (7-1) than the ‘Dogs (6-2).
Even though the Bulldogs have the head-to-head win, the conference record trumps it as the tiebreaker.
The Bulldogs can host the Broncos, but it requires Boise State to beat the Aztecs and lose to either the Rams or Aggies.
Hosting against the Rainbow Warriors or Lobos
The ‘Dogs still have a chance to host, but it relies on some outlandish scenarios and crazy upsets moving forward.
First, the Aztecs would have to lose all of their remaining games. With how strong they’ve looked this season, it would be the ultimate collapse.
With the Aztecs losing all four remaining games, the ‘Dogs would host a 9-3 Lobos team, with them winning the rest of their remaining games.
If the Lobos lose to anyone that is not the Rebels, then the ‘Dogs would end up hosting the Rainbow Warriors.
The Broncos would have to beat the Aztecs and then lose one of their last two games to the Rams or Aggies to activate the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Broncos.
With the Bulldogs’ 23-21 victory over the Rainbow Warriors, that tiebreaker allows the Bulldogs to host a Mountain West title in their final season.
Jackpot against the Rebels
Another wild scenario would have the Bulldogs traveling to play the Rebels for a Mountain West title.
The Aztecs would have to lose to the Rainbow Warriors, Broncos and Spartans. A win against the Lobos would not change this scenario.
The Rebels have to win out and finish 10-2, and the ‘Dogs would have tiebreakers over the Lobos and the Broncos.
Again, the Bulldogs can host the Rebels if UNLV suffers one more conference loss, the Aztecs lose at least three of their four remaining conference games and the Broncos beat the Aztecs but lose to the Rams and Aggies.
Some scenarios are wilder than others, but the fact that the ‘Dogs are still alive in the race should give fans a reason to pack Valley Children’s Stadium for the remaining two games of the season.
