The future of democratic representation at the national level is up in the air, as California and Texas have been battling over redrawing congressional maps to secure one party’s power over the other.
On Wednesday night, after weeks of contention, the Texas House passed a redrawn version of its congressional map. This version, which would give Republicans an extra five seats in the House of Representatives, is raising lots of concerns around the nation due to potential gerrymandering.
Gerrymandering occurs when redistrictors (either the state Legislature or, in California’s case, an independent commission) politically manipulate electoral constituencies to favor a certain political party or class.
“This makes it more likely that elected officials will choose their voters instead of voters choosing them,” said Jeffrey Cummins, a political science professor at Fresno State.
Racial gerrymandering, however, is a trickier subject that has to be met with scrutiny, as the Supreme Court ruled that gerrymandering with race as a “predominant factor” is unconstitutional.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has taken a stance against Texas’ redistricting and has called for a special election on Nov. 4 for voters to approve the state Legislature’s proposed redrawn congressional map.
Texas Hold ‘em
Texas currently has 38 congressional districts, 25 of which are held by Republicans and 13 that are held by Democrats. The new redistricting plan would give Texas Republicans five more seats in the House of Representatives, while the Democrats would drop down to eight seats.
“The Texas redistricting plan further erodes the norms and practices of American democracy,” Cummins said. “Previously, redistricting has usually only been done once a decade when the federal census is done. Now, we may have redistricting every time a state legislature changes party control.”
The House currently has a Republican majority, with 219 seats to the Dems’ 212. As typical political trends go during presidential elections, the party that is elected into the executive is almost always the majority party in the Senate and the House. However, as midterm elections come around, one or both chambers of Congress flip to the opposite party.
With this trend in mind, it is important to note why President Donald Trump has been an advocate for Texas’ redistricting plan. By obtaining an extra five Republican seats, there is a better chance for the GOP to maintain control of the House after the midterms in 2026.
In Texas, the state Legislature is in charge of redrawing and approving new congressional maps. This proposal, made back in June, was met with heavy backlash from Texas state Democrats. So, Texas Democrats decided to protest and delay the vote by leaving Texas for two weeks.
However, Texas Democrats returned to the Lone Star State on Monday, where all of their proposed amendments on the redistricting bill were rejected by Republicans. On Wednesday night, the Texas House voted 88-52 to approve the redrawn maps. Now, Gov. Greg Abbott has to sign the plan into law.
Texas Democrats have stated that they will challenge the redistricting’s legality on the grounds that race was a predominant factor in the redrawn maps.
Golden State fights fire with fire
Almost immediately after Texas announced that it would be redrawing its congressional maps, Newsom announced the California Legislature would be redrawing its map in retaliation. He said he would “fight fire with fire,” leading to gerrymandering on both sides of the aisle.
On Thursday, the California State Legislature passed redistricting bills, which Newsom signed. This would put the bills on the ballot for voters, where they get to decide on whether or not to vote for redistricting in the special election on Nov. 4.
The bills that were passed on Thursday drew contention to a voter-passed ballot measure in 2010 that put redrawing congressional maps in the hands of an independent commission to ensure fair and balanced elections. The maps would be redrawn every 10 years in correspondence with the census.
Cummins explained that redistricting sooner than every 10 years could pose some problems to voters.
“It is generally bad for democracy to frequently redistrict as the current trend seems to be going. Voters may not be able to vote for incumbents that they like as much,” he said.
The proposed redistricting plan would eliminate five Republican seats, which would cancel out Texas’ five additional seats. One of the Republican seats that has the potential to be eliminated would be the Central Valley’s own Congressman David Valadao.
Valadao’s district currently covers Kings, Tulare and Kern counties. In the proposed redrawn map, Valadao’s district would add parts of Fresno County, which could see more democratic voters in a district that already has a majority of registered Democrats.
Although the redistricting plan would hurt Valadao’s district, Valadao has beaten the odds time and time again. In Valadao’s district, 42% of voters are registered Democrats, while the other 26% are registered Republicans.
“I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that Valadao will likely lose his seat,” Cummins said. “His seat has been overwhelmingly Democratic in the past, and he has still won the district. It could happen under the new district as well.”
Fresno State currently resides in California’s 21st Congressional District, which is represented by Congressman Jim Costa. In the proposed map, Fresno State would still reside within the district; Costa could see an 11th consecutive term in Congress as the district was barely touched in the redrawn maps.
Unlike Texas’ government, California’s government operates as a direct democracy, which gives voters a final say in letting state Democrats redistrict before an independent commission can redraw in 2030.
