The Fresno State Bulldogs host the San Diego State Aztecs in a game with big-time Mountain West Conference championship implications.
Here are some key details to keep in mind going into this matchup.
Turnovers
The ‘Dogs turned the ball over a season-high four times against Colorado State, as they continue to struggle with turning the ball over. Their 14 turnovers are tied for 124th out of 136 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams.
The Bulldogs have turned it over three or more times in three of their seven games this season.
The Aztecs, by comparison, have only turned it over twice all season, good for third-lowest in the nation.
While the turnover rates are night and day for these offenses, Fresno State’s defense forced 11 turnovers compared to the Aztecs’ six forced turnovers.
For the ‘Dogs to win, hanging onto the ball is critical.
For the Aztecs to win, the key is to keep punishing Fresno State for any loose balls or dangerous throws, as other teams have been all season. The ‘Dogs have allowed 51 points off turnovers.
Of their 14 turnovers, eight of them resulted in points for their opponent. Seven of them came in the form of touchdowns. Two of the touchdowns were fumbles returned for a touchdown.
Penalties
Both teams have struggled with penalties this season.
The Bulldogs committed 13 penalties for 117 yards in their loss to the Colorado State University Rams. Currently, the ‘Dogs average 62.7 penalty yards per game, making them 100th in the FBS.
The Aztecs average 60 penalty yards per game, 87th in the FBS. They were noticeably more disciplined, committing only four penalties for 43 yards against the University of Nevada, Reno Wolf Pack in their Oct. 11 game.
Playing disciplined football and focusing on limiting penalties is crucial, as this is a rivalry game, and emotions can be heightened.
Red zone scoring
The Aztecs come into this game as the fifth-ranked scoring defense in the FBS. They have the seventh-ranked red zone defense, allowing scores on red zone drives only 71% of the time.
The Bulldogs’ red zone defense is much less impressive. Their opponents score a touchdown on 76% of their red zone drives. That’s tied for fifth-worst in the FBS.
The Aztecs are also one of five teams that have scored on every red zone possession, going 20-for-20 with 14 touchdowns and six field goals. It is a smaller sample size, as three of the other four such teams have more trips to the red zone.
The ‘Dogs have struggled in the red zone, as they’re currently ranked 109th in red zone offense, going 21-for-27, with 14 touchdowns and seven field goals.
Notably, three of those six missed chances were turnovers — a pair of fumbles and an interception. The other three consist of a missed field goal, a turnover on downs and a kneel down against the Wolf Pack.
Converting on third and fourth down
Both teams are in the top 30 in first downs allowed per game. The Aztecs hold opponents to 14.8 first downs per game (10th). The Bulldogs aren’t far behind, at 17.1 first downs per game (tied for 27th).
With first downs being a luxury, sustainable drives on third and fourth down become more important.
The Aztecs convert 37% of their third downs (101st), while the ‘Dogs convert 44% of theirs (43rd).
On fourth down, that trend flips. The Aztecs convert 54% of the time (T-77th). The Bulldogs only convert 38% of the time (T-119th).
The Aztecs have a top 10 third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 26% of the time. By comparison, the Bulldogs allow their opponents to convert on third down 40% of the time.
The ‘Dogs turned the ball over on downs three times against the Rams, as well as going three and out six times against the Wolf Pack.
If the Aztecs can get (and keep) the Bulldogs off the field, they’ll be in good shape.
The key for the ‘Dogs is to convert on key downs, avoid third/fourth and long and avoid those aforementioned penalties.
Field goals
In a game that should be a dog fight, kicking could play a big role.
Fresno State’s Dylan Lynch is 8-for-12 on the year, with a long of 43 yards, going 1-for-4 on kicks of 40 or more yards.
San Diego State’s Gabriel Plascencia is 10-for-10, with a long of 53, going 5-for-5 on kicks of 40 or more yards.
The Aztecs have the edge on distance and consistency, which is worth keeping an eye on, especially at the end of each half.
Ultimately, the key for the ‘Dogs is playing clean football, focusing on avoiding turnovers or penalties and finishing their drives.
The Aztecs’ goal is to take advantage of any mistakes the ’Dogs make and play a bend-but-don’t-break game on defense.
Kickoff at Valley Children’s Stadium is set for Oct. 25 at 12:30 p.m. on Fox Sports 1.
