The 2024 presidential election is expected to be one of the closest and most controversial in modern history, with numerous polls indicating that the candidates are in a dead heat in the final hours of the campaign.
Here are several key points to keep in mind as the results roll in.
1. Beware of vote mirages
Early vote returns are infamously unreliable predictors of future outcomes because of state-specific regulations governing the timing and method of ballot counting. Mail-in ballots, which were counted after in-person ballots and skewed heavily Democratic, caused the notorious “red mirage” in the 2020 presidential election.
North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida have a reputation for quick counting and early reporting. Other states may take days or weeks to fully tabulate their votes.
2. There is still foreign interference
Numerous bomb threats linked to Russian email domains have already been made at polling stations in Arizona, Georgia, Maine and Michigan; this could also cause the results to be delayed.
Social media will be inundated with false and misleading information. The FBI warns that its name and insignia are being used in fraudulent videos on numerous platforms. Pay attention to the sources you read and share.
3. Lawsuits abound
Further complicating the ballot counting is the impending wave of lawsuits and state-level legal squabbles.
Election watchdogs have been warning that local officials may be acting outside the law this year, and such a dispute has already occurred in Pennsylvania on Tuesday afternoon. The election director for Fayette County filed an emergency petition alleging that an election judge for Washington Township was getting ready to manually count ballots after polls closed.
Several unfounded allegations of voter fraud have been debunked, but investigating takes time.
4. We may not have a winner tonight
Taking all the above into account, it is reasonable to assume a winner might not be announced until after election night.
The majority of elections have historically been called before midnight on election day, but the unique circumstances surrounding the last couple may buck this trend. The 2016 election was called mere hours after polls closed, but the 2020 election’s winner was announced four days later.
Regardless of how the night unfolds, you might want hunker down and hold off on throwing yourself off the ledge or popping the champagne until all the votes have been counted.
