Even after suffering a gut-wrenching 42-18 loss to San Jose State to drop to 4-2 and third place, the Fresno State football team’s hopes of a repeat Mountain West championship are still far from over.
Although they no longer control their destiny, there are still several scenarios where the ‘Dogs end up back in the title game for the second straight year.
None of the scenarios matter if Fresno State is unable to win both of its next two games. The first is against New Mexico on Saturday, Nov. 18.
Fresno State comes into the game riding a nine-game winning streak at Valley Children’s Stadium.
The ‘Dogs are favored by 23.5 points, according to ESPN bets.
The Lobos are currently tied for last with a 1-5 conference record and are on a three-game losing streak. Its last two losses came in blowout fashion to UNLV and Boise State, both of whom lost to Fresno State.
The Lobos’ offense is ranked middle of the conference in a variety of stats. The reason for the struggles is because of the defense, as they rank last in points allowed per game at 36.
Both the pass and run defense have been lackluster thus far. The run defense is 11th in the Mountain West in yards per rush, and the pass defense has the worst opposing quarterback rating in the conference at 166.1. New Mexico has given up 22 touchdown passes and has only forced three interceptions.
Even with the defensive struggles, New Mexico’s defense provides something new that Fresno State’s offense has yet to see this year.
“They line up in a lot of interesting fronts with a lot of pressures and a lot of different looks on the back end,” quarterbacks coach Matt Wade told The Collegian.
After starting quarterback Mikey Keene suffered an injury during the loss to San Jose State, his status for the upcoming game is in question.
Backup quarterback Logan Fife started last year’s game against New Mexico and led the team to a dominant 41-9 victory, while filling in for an injured Jake Haener.
Fife didn’t have the most dazzling game with his arm, as he completed 65.6% of his passes and threw a touchdown and an interception.
However, Fife showcased his talent running the ball as he scored two touchdowns on the ground, and averaged 8.2 yards per carry.
Wade is confident that if Fife were to start, he’d be more than ready for the challenge.
“I feel like Logan can do a great job,” Wade said. “I think he’s improved a ton, even from last year.”
This season has been a flip from last year for Fife. Last season, he completed 70% of his passes but had a 2-6 touchdown to interception ratio.
As opposed to this year, where he’s completing just 56.6% but has limited the turnovers with only two interceptions and three touchdowns.
The turnover battle will also be something Fresno State can take advantage of. The Bulldogs rank sixth in the country with a plus-10 turnover margin. In comparison, New Mexico ranks 119th at -7.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Lobos have been led by quarterback Dylan Hopkins. Hopkins has had an up-and-down season with an 11-7 touchdown to interception ratio.
Hopkins didn’t play in the previous game against Boise State. In his absence, Devon Dampier took over as quarterback and completed 17-of-26 passes for 200 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Even in a small sample size with 49 pass attempts on the season, Dampier has been the more efficient quarterback with a 161.0 quarterback rating compared to 134.2 from Hopkins.
Dampier is also a threat on the ground, as he’s the second-leading rusher for New Mexico this season with 252 yards and two touchdowns.
The star of the Lobos offense is running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
After the run defense struggled mightily against San Jose States’ Kairee Robinson, who ran for 200 yards and two touchdowns, seeing how the Bulldog’s defense handles another elite running back will be something to look out for.
Croskey-Merritt is third in the conference with 748 rushing yards and second with 14 touchdowns, trailing only Robinson’s 15.
Four Fresno State wide receivers have more yards than New Mexico’s leading receiver, Caleb Medford, who has 404 yards.
For the Bulldogs on the ground, Malik Sherrod has cemented himself as the starter and has three games with over 100 yards rushing.
After starting the season with 448 yards in his first four games, wide receiver Erik Brooks has only put up 176 yards in the six games since.
With the recent slump from Brooks, the receiving numbers for the team are much more balanced than they were at the start of the season, as four receivers have over 400 yards.
Brooks still leads the team with 624. Trailing him is Jalen Moss with 560, Mac Dalena with 440 and Jaelen Gill with 430.
On defense for Fresno State, the team is led by linebacker Levelle Bailey. Bailey is second on the team with 58 total tackles and has made several game-changing plays for them this season.
For New Mexico, only safety Jermarius Lewis has more than one interception; both of them came in the same game against Hawaii and its pass-reliant offense.
Even with the Bulldogs coming off their most significant loss in a Mountain West game since 2021 and Keene’s status in question, this should still be a game Fresno State should be able to pull away with.
The game will start at 7:30 p.m. and air on Fox Sports 1.
