What's next for the Democrats?

LAST MONDAY I wrote, “I’m not hedging my bets for a [Democratic] takeover of either house of Congress.”

That was of course before the mid-term elections that proved my reluctance to predict a Democratic win silly at best and horrifyingly cynical at worst.

The polls had been telling us for months that the Democrats were likely to take back at least the House of Representatives.

Clearly I should have been less skeptical of the possibility of a Democratic takeover of the House and, it turns out, the Senate.

Just as an indicator of the degree of last week’s Democratic victory, consider the fact that the Democrats are now likely to have a larger majority in the next House of Representatives than the Republicans have now.

The Senate, of course, is much closer, with the Democrats only gaining a one-seat majority — and that includes Joe Lieberman, the Democrat-turned-independent who’s promised to caucus with his former party.

We’ll soon see just how deep his commitment to the Democrats is, as he will become one of the most powerful men in America with his ability to decide between a bare Democratic majority and a de facto Republican one.

That being said, come January the Democrats are set to be back in Congressional power for the first time since losing it in 1994 (with the exception of a brief and impotent period of Senate control from 2001-2003 due to the defection of a Republican).

Now the question arises of what the Democrats will do with their newfound electoral success.

The answer is likely that they will make the next two years a living hell for the Bush administration by launching endless investigations into the lead up to, and conduct of, the war in Iraq.

The motive behind these investigations will not only be an interest in cracking down on graft in the military-industrial complex.

Instead it will be the beginning of the Democrats’ 2008 presidential campaign.

The Democratic hope will be that by embarrassing the Bush administration and exposing its various wrongdoings they will be able to convince voters that a Democratic president is the best choice.

Yet don’t expect the animosity between the president and Congress to prevent things from getting done.

On the list of Democratic goals for this session of Congress are reforms to the nation’s homeland security policies, including improvements to port security, reform of national immigration policy and a raise in the national minimum wage.

The president is unlikely to use his veto pen to stop any of these changes, most of which would be political dynamite to touch in the current climate.

On immigration reform in particular the president’s position has always been closer to the Democrats than some of his fellow Republicans that sought incredibly punitive measures against undocumented immigrants.

It would not be surprising to see a serious guest-worker program with the built-in possibility of earning full citizenship passed and signed in the next two years.

The Democrats may also help the administration on another important issue as well.

In the next several weeks the Iraq Study Group, headed in part by George H.W. Bush’s secretary of state, James A. Baker, will be released.

It’s not clear what Baker’s report will conclude about the situation in Iraq, but it’s not likely to be pleasant for those who seek to “stay the course” indefinitely.

Most importantly the report will probably give political cover to both the Democrats in Congress and the president in seeking a phased or even more immediate withdrawal from the war.

The Democrats who seek an end to the war as most of the American public seems to, would be wise to give the president the political cover he’ll need to crease the conditions for a gradual withdrawal.

A more immediate end to the conflict seems unlikely — and it’s not clear if the public would even support an abrupt end followed by the inevitable regional unrest that would follow.

But if there’s one thing that this midterm election has shown it’s that the American public wants change in Washington.

The public is tired of Republican corruption, extremist legislation and, most importantly, the war in Iraq.

The Democrats must strike a new course and give the public the palpable change it demands.

If they succeed in this, and strike a course more to the center of the American political spectrum than the Republicans traditionally have, their prospects for 2008 will be bright.

Otherwise they risk another decade of political irrelevance — and last Tuesday’s election will be seen as only a temporary setback in a long period of Republican rule.

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