Making sense of tomorrow’s general election, candidates

By Bradley Hart
The Collegian

IT’S BEEN A long road to the Election Day that’s now only one day away.

There have been a number of major developments on the political front over the past year since I’ve been writing about politics in this space. Looking back at my old columns, I’m struck by how the issues driving our politics have changed very little in that time.

Perhaps the biggest factor for many voters will surely be the war in Iraq that seems to drag on and on without realistic hope for a decline in violence on the horizon.

Many voters will no doubt be casting votes against the ongoing conflict.

Polling has shown that many Americans who say they’ll vote Democratic aren’t doing so because they believe in anything the party is saying — instead they’ll be casting votes against President Bush and the Republican establishment.

That might lead to a short-term win for the Democrats — but in the long run it could be harmful to the party’s overall prospects.

Failure to deliver a substantive alternative to the current status quo would be devastating for the party’s long-term prospects.

Yet despite the fact that most political pundits seem to be already swearing a Democratic Congress into office, I’m more skeptical of the party’s chances.

The Republican “get out the vote” operation is sophisticated and renowned for its effectiveness.

The Democrats have some of this capability but are nowhere near the Republicans in terms of sophistication.

Knowing this, and with the experience of predicting Democratic wins previously only to be badly wrong, I’m not hedging my bets for a takeover of either house of Congress.

Of course, by tomorrow evening the predictions will be obsolete anyway — and we’ll know which party will be controlling the legislative branch for the last two years of the Bush administration.

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