According to a 2025 survey by the Pew Research Center, 86% of Americans agree with the following statement:
“Republicans and Democrats are more focused on fighting each other than on solving problems.”
The Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics reported that 64% of Americans aged 18 to 29 feel more fear than hope for the future of American democracy.
When looking toward the future, 77% of Americans believe that the country will be more politically divided in 2050 than it is today.
Over the last month alone, the United States has seen several high-tension events: the Sept. 10 assassination of Charlie Kirk, the temporary suspension of Jimmy Kimmel’s talk show on Sept. 17 and President Donald Trump’s threat to deploy the National Guard across U.S. cities.
Especially now, the topic of political division is looming in American society.
Though the 2028 election is still three years away, some Fresno State students and professors weighed in on the current state of the United States and what they think politics might look like in the future.
“I don’t think the United States is headed toward civil war,” said Everett Vieira, a Fresno State political science professor. “Do I think that the United States is headed toward more political violence? Yes.”
When in history
Political division is not a new concept to the U.S., Vieira explained. He recalled periods in U.S. history that he believes mirror what’s going on today. He mentioned the 1860s Civil War, where the U.S. was divided into slavery states and anti-slavery states.
“On the topic of assassinations, you can point to the 60s,” Vieira said. “President Kennedy assassinated in 1963, you have Martin Luther King Jr. assassinated, Bobby Kennedy, Malcolm X.”
Vieira also brought up the recent assassination attempts on President Donald Trump last year in Florida and in Pennsylvania.
“It’s an uneasy time,” he said.
Political science professor Thomas Holyoke also suggested that the Civil War era reflects some similarities in present-day U.S. He said that Americans shouldn’t anticipate a division of this severity today, though.
“I don’t think anyone really wants to go there,” Holyoke said.
Holyoke also said that the Great Depression in the 1930s caused tension and uneasiness in the U.S.; however, it led some people to have more faith in the government.
“A combination of the Vietnam War and Watergate shattered that,” he said.
Present day
Holyoke said that, today, the U.S. is divided into two “teams”: conservative Republicans and liberal progressives.
“They have no interest in what the other side has to say,” he said. “[They have] a tendency to believe, not just that the other side is wrong, but that the other side is dangerous and corruptive.”
Holyoke said that somewhere between the two extremes are Americans who have “turned themselves off to the government.” In other words, some people have resorted to total disassociation.
In 2023, the Pew Research Center found that 65% of Americans tend to feel exhausted when thinking about politics.
Holyoke also suggested that Americans might not be as divided as major media entities make them out to be — that, in normal life, most Americans ultimately want to get along.
Lucas McGary, a political science major at Fresno State, believes that recent events, such as Kirk’s assassination, have helped seal the divide after both sides of the political spectrum were seen condemning political violence.
“For the first time, we see both Democrats and Republicans coming together and agreeing on something,” McGary said. “It’s unfortunate that it took a tragedy to do so.”
McGary also said that social media algorithms have played a major role in dividing America.
“Our algorithms know our bias, and they do a good job at reinforcing our bias, making us less willing to come together,” McGary said.
Like Holyoke, McGary said that politicians are demonized on both sides.
Vieira said that American political division can be attributed to the stark separation of the two leading political parties. He said that the system was designed so that one side wouldn’t be the total ruling power, but that system has slowly dissipated.
“What we’ve seen in recent years are the sides, the parties, the ideologies retreated farther, farther into their extremes,” Vieira said.
Vieira also pointed to the dividing nature of certain political rhetoric, specifically the language used to describe individuals on the opposite side.
What’s ahead?
Looking ahead, McGary believes that the Democrats will prevail over Republicans, who have the majority in all three governmental branches.
“I do see the Democrats ruling because they will, in fact, bounce back from the major loss of the 2024 election and come up with new ideas to run a government,” McGary said.
He said that he has faith in the U.S., that the issues he sees in politics will work out eventually. When thinking specifically of the U.S. in 10 years, McGary said it is hard to tell exactly where the country will be, but he has some predictions.
“We will see more and more action by the Supreme Court with Trump’s executive orders, and we will see more of a concentration of power in the executive branch, which will be afforded to both Democrats and Republicans,” McGary said.
Vieira said that it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen in the 2028 elections, but he said that, according to the trends seen in history, Republicans will theoretically lose in the next presidential election.
Holyoke agreed, predicting that Democrats will take the U.S. House of Representatives, but likely not the Senate.
