Iran recently promised to curtail its nuclear development capabilities.
Iran’s government has agreed to limit its uranium enrichment program as well as halting construction of centrifuges. Only half of those centrifuges in existence will be allowably operable. Other agreements include full access allowed to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors as well as a cease to all work on the heavy water reactor in Arak.
How was this all possible? After all, it was only three years ago that Iran’s previous president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Al-Qaeda was a U.S. fabrication and that the U.S. government was behind the September 11 attacks.
When the P5+1 nations (that’s the five nations that sit on the U.N. Security Council and Germany) first embarked on these nuclear sanctions with Iran, it seemed like a goofy politicking move on behalf of the P5+1. Like each leader agreed, “Yeah, we gotta look like we’re doing something about Iran and all those assumed nukes.”
Apparently, these people were serious about coming to some peaceful resolution with Iran””and they did. It seems.
Being a Cynical Sandy is always kind of lonely. Everyone assumes you refuse to look at the silver lining, but being skeptical of things like organic produce from Dollar Tree and Black Friday sales actually makes for a more enjoyable life. No dashed hopes or unfulfilled dreams.
Being skeptical of this Iran deal is a good move, like giving in to doubts about purses from the flea market. They could be real. Maybe they’re a little out of date, but it’s the real thing, signed sealed and delivered.
Or those purses could be total fakes, stitched out of false marketing and not-quite-right logos. Maybe it looks like a Luis Vuitton, but that “L” and “V” on the logo don’t quite line up. It’s not real, no matter how much you talk it up, or keep it shapely and shiny. It’s still unreal.
Enter Iran sanctions.
It’s hard to believe a nation so vehemently anti-West is now willing to make such a limiting agreement with the U.S. and the other five nations (notice my hat-tip to American exceptionalism).
Like all deals, this is actually a trade. If it wasn’t, we’d be calling it a gift.
You see, Iran is getting $7 billion in sanction relief (AKA bribe) and another $4 billion in oil revenue that has been held frozen in foreign banks until Iran promised to stop making nukes.
Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, needs to improve Iran’s economy. The nation’s currency, the rial, is the world’s least valued currency, and Iranians have grown ever poorer due to the economic policies of the previous president, Ahmadinejad.
With the sanctions comes the opening of Iran for trade with the West, hence, the unfrozen foreign accounts.
Unfortunately, economic sanctions don’t really keep a nation from developing nuclear weapons.
What will happen: Iran’s economy improves and they begin rearmament.
Why not? More liquidity in its economy means more infrastructure and education improvements. Why not military improvements?
And why take nukes from Iran? Especially in the case that they keep legitimizing their democracy while reluctantly accepting Western education and science.
None of this reasoning matters, of course, because Iran WILL continue its nuclear development.
Just as Germany began rearmament despite the Treaty of Versailles, so will Iran rearm.
Rouhani or the next administration may take a leaf out of Chancellor Hitler’s book, and develop their weapons in an allied nation. Oh, say Russia. What’s that? Russia is one of the P5+1 nations. True! But diplomacy is a shifty thing, for crafty, clever and ballsy individuals.
Nothing against Rhouhani. The man seems very democratic and egalitarian.
And this is exactly why sanctions on Iran will only be followed for a short time. What self-respecting leader improves the economic state of the nation while allowing a handful of foreign powers to dictate what his nation’s military can and can’t do?
