By Hailey Mayo
Fresno State’s Center for Irrigation Technology warns that the San Joaquin Valley may be approaching a severe long-term drought without increased rainfall this season and if it doesn’t change its water consumption habits.
“The long term prospect is that we will run out of ground water in the San Joaquin Valley if we continue to utilize water the way we are currently and we don’t get more rain fall,” said David Zoldoske, director of the Center for Irrigation Technology (CIT).
Zoldoske said the Valley has exhausted its water supply built up from a “wet year” three years ago. Normally, that water would be used in the future if rainwater was lacking, but after two dry years, none of that water remains.
“We don’t have that resource anymore so we’re going to be 100 percent dependent on what this rainfall year is,” said Zoldoske.
Meteorologist Gary Sanger of the National Weather Service in Hanford said he couldn’t give a prediction for this upcoming rainy season.
“Right now, it’s going to be very hard to predict. There are no suggestions to say we’re favoring an ‘El Niño’ or ‘La Niña’ weather pattern at this point.”
The Climate Prediction Center states that there are equal chances of above””and below””average precipitation in the San Joaquin Valley.
The Department of Water Resources recorded that last year’s rainfall was extremely low and abnormal. The report stated that the 2013 water year has been particularly challenging with double the normal precipitation in November and December and historically low values from January through May.
These last two dry years forced farmers to use ground water to irrigate crops, but it was never replaced, Zoldoske said.
“In the past, farmers flood irrigated most of the Valley, which tends to be less efficient in the scheme of things,” Zoldoske said. “The excess water is put back into the ground and recharges it for later use, but as we move toward more precision irrigation like drip and micro, which tends to be more efficient, it doesn’t recharge the ground water and leaves our personal underground aquifer at risk.”
Zoldoske said if the water farmers take from the ground doesn’t get replaced, the pore space where the water is stored is at risk to subside and collapse, leaving no room for replacement in the future.
Zoldoske said that farmers are taking 2 million acres with an overlaying one foot of water from the ground. That amount is not being replaced.
“That’s the equivalent of four Millerton Lakes, or two Pine Flats, of water not being recharged in the ground,” he said. “It’s like writing a check and not having enough money in your account. Pretty soon you’re going to run out.”
Most ground water has already been extracted for irrigation use in what could be the third dry year. Some farms in the San Joaquin Valley fell victim to the ground subsiding two to three feet because of over-drafting water, Zoldoske said. Wells were extended further into the ground because the ground water level is falling every year.
“If you look at the campus here in the 1950s the depth to water was 50 feet, today it’s over 150 feet. So the water level has dropped 100 feet in the last 60 years,” said Zoldoske.
Zoldoske explains that a long term drought isn’t out of the question but that prediction of this year’s rainfall is still up in the air.
“It hasn’t been uncommon in the last 500 years for droughts to last 20 or 30 years,” he said. “We in the last 100 years have been very fortunate to not have any of those extended droughts. We might be in the third year of a 10-year drought. We just don’t know.”
Zoldoske said a lack of irrigation water would lead to a snowball phenomenon.
“Jobs will be lost””from the farmer to the trucker that moves the produce””buying food will be more expensive because there’s less of it and to produce it will be more expensive because the water’s more expensive,” said Zoldoske. “Farmers may become bankrupt causing the state to lose that tax base, which means less money for schools””especially in the rural communities.”
Fresno State student Gabriela Ramirez said an increase in food prices would impact her food consumption in multiple ways.
“I really like to cook and watch what I eat,” Ramirez said. “Food is already expensive enough for me and as a college student, I’m already on a strict budget. So if the price of food and water went up, my diet would probably get really poor and I’d lose one of my favorite pass times.”
Zoldoske said consumers simply need to conserve water.
Said Zoldoske: “The current take away message is that our current water supply doesn’t meet demand, and as a community in the San Joaquin Valley we need to work to get supply equal to demand.”
