Where will events in Egypt go from here?
This is the question the Obama Administration must be asking itself.
Among the intelligentsia, two positions have been staked out: One side proclaims support for the protesters no matter what ”” liberté, egalité, fraternité is their cry; the other side wonders why the United States is treating its ally in such a poor manner ”” send in the tanks, they say.
Obama is notable in that he has taken neither of these positions.
The administration’s policy could rightly be described as one of trying to pick the winner.
Whatever this is, it is not leadership.
Undoubtedly, this is a difficult situation. Hosni Mubarak, the president of Egypt, has been a steadfast ally in the region for 30-plus years. Since Anwar Sadat, Mubarak’s predecessor in Egypt, was assassinated for signing a peace treaty with Israel, Mubarak has almost singlehandedly kept peace between Israel and the Arab states in the Middle East.
Egypt is the region’s largest country, and no jihad against Israel could be successfully attempted without Egypt’s acquiescence. Mubarak has been indispensable in this regard.
He has also been a dictatorial thug. He has tortured foes, imprisoned journalists and made a mockery of the democratic process.
This is what makes the Obama position reasonable. It doesn’t make it the right one.
If Egypt continues to descend into chaos, instability will reach other Arab countries. It started in Tunisia and has already extended in part to Jordan and Yemen.
It sounds right and just to American ears to hear people from other countries speaking of throwing off years of tyranny and oppression and of instituting true democracy and free and fair elections.
But democracy means nothing without freedom of speech, freedom of religion and the rule of law.
This has been shown throughout the Middle East: wherever democracy has been instituted in the region, radical Islamic groups have taken power, notably in Iran with the ayatollahs in 1979, and in Gaza with Hamas in 2006.
But what should the United States do?
What can we even do? America is hated all around the Arab world, with al-Qaeda even being more popular in some countries. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts, its that there is a limit to what the United States can do around the world.
But we must try to shape events in Egypt in a way that coincides with our interests.
It is clear that Mubarak cannot stay in power now; if he were to remain in power, those who protested his government would have their lives endangered, as some have already experienced. We should use the power of the purse (the U.S. government gives billions of dollars in aid to Egypt every year) to persuade Mubarak to step down as soon as possible.
It is equally clear that Egypt will be prone to anti-American and anti-Israel sentiments if leaders from the opposition movement were to take power. Mubarak’s vice president, Gen. Omar Suleiman, should take the reins of government. He has the respect of the Egyptian military, one of the most popular institutions in the country, and is removed enough from Mubarak that he could realistically command the support of a majority of Egyptians.
But democracy is not the answer in Egypt. Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.
