COME DEBATE TIME, the Republicans have a crowded stage. One of them stands to benefit from it.
After Saturday̢۪s South Carolina primary, six old, white men still stood in the GOP nomination contest. Of them, three have won primaries or caucuses. The other three usually weren̢۪t far behind. To have such a contested race so late in the season is atypical.
The Democrats, barring that their white man is a novelty act and isn̢۪t even that old, have a less unusual campaign. They have three candidates at their debates, half as many as the Republicans.
Sure, there are two longshots — perennial also-ran Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and outright crazy person and former Alaskan senator Mike Gravel — but neither has even come close to win, place or show in any horse race so far.
This late in the primary season, Americans have come to expect consolidated races, focused on two or three realistic candidates.
To this extent, the GOP is broken.
There̢۪s Mike Huckabee, an evangelical minister and former Arkansas governor. There̢۪s John McCain, a Vietnam War veteran and Arizona senator. There̢۪s Mitt Romney, businessman and former Massachusetts governor. There̢۪s Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City. Rounding out the pack, there̢۪s Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
Rep. Duncan Hunter of California dropped out on Saturday, and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson joined him on Tuesday.
Who stands to gain from such a confused race? Rudy Giuliani.
Like resident campaign longshot Paul, Giuliani hasn’t won a single primary or caucus so far. In every state except New Hampshire, the former New York City mayor — who led the national polls by a wide margin as recently as December — received even fewer votes.
Nonetheless, Giuliani has a halfway-realistic shot at the nomination. He has intra-party rival Mitt Romney to thank for it.
Romney̢۪s tenacity can only help Giuliani. Despite whatever sanity remains in the Republican party, the former Massachusetts governor has kept the GOP race fractured with his three wins.
In Romney̢۪s preferred language of Olympic-speak, that̢۪s three golds to complement his two silvers. At first glance, that̢۪s better than any other candidates. Naturally, a closer look is less flattering.
His golds are unimpressive — he handily won Wyoming, Nevada and his native Michigan. His silvers — Iowa and New Hampshire — were supposed to be states he easily won, where much of his personal fortune funded his way through.
He didn̢۪t even get a bronze in South Carolina on Saturday. For a multi-million dollar investment, that̢۪s what I̢۪d call some poor returns.
If Romney keeps putting up a good fight — if you can call it that — McCain can’t and won’t have an easy path to the nomination. Giuliani’s been working Florida pretty hard for a few weeks now. If he does as well as Romney was supposed to do in Iowa and New Hampshire, the GOP might keep campaigning all the way through to Texas’ last delegate.
Romney hasn̢۪t won the major contests so far. He leads in early Florida polls, but within the margin of error. Giuliani can still catch up.
Giuliani has been campaigning in Florida, whose Jan. 29 primary is strategically placed just before coast-to-coast primaries on Feb. 5.
If he wins in Florida, Giuliani reasons, he̢۪ll be in a good place to capitalize on what he could call a come-from-behind victory on the following Tuesday.
The ultimate irony is that Giuliani will present himself as the underdog — remember, he once led the national polls. It might be his only weapon against New Hampshire and South Carolina victor McCain, whose candidacy will likely rely on veterans and retirees.
It̢۪s a perfect storm for Giuliani̢۪s Florida strategy. So for now, Giuliani benefits.
In the long run, though, a divisive multi-candidate fight to the primaries̢۪ finish doesn̢۪t benefit any Republican candidate.
In the general election, disenfranchised Republicans bolster a Democratic victory. If these candidates want a Republican win, those six old, white men should get their act together.
Fred Thompson got the hint. Who̢۪s next?
