Taking an early look at the Major League awards

By Jack O'Connell of the Hartford Courant

How the baseball awards balloting in the National League should go:

Most Valuable Player:
This is not intended as an anti-Bonds vote. Every year Barry Bonds puts up astonishing statistics despite being pitched around more than any other hitter in history. Bonds is such a singular presence in the Giants lineup that his value is unquestioned.

Bonds may very well win the MVP for the fourth consecutive season and the seventh time overall. While it is hard to argue against him, I am prepared to do it anyway. Since Bonds is so naked in the Giants batting order, his value is a given, but the same could be said of Dodgers third baseman Adrian Beltre, who ranks in the top four of each Triple Crown category as well as such significant areas as hits, total bases and grand slams.

That said, the league’s MVP is in St. Louis. Much has been made of the fact that the Cardinals have three legitimate candidates in first baseman Albert Pujols, third baseman Scott Rolen and center fielder Jim Edmonds. The line of thought among many voters is that the value of each is diminished to a degree because of the presence of the other two. The Giants and Dodgers live and die with Bonds and Beltre while the Cardinals have three motors in their engine.

There is logic in that, but it does not take into account the span of the 162-game season. The Giants and Dodgers went into the final weekend battling for playoff berths, which adds weight to any contributions Bonds or Beltre makes that get his team into postseason play. The Cardinals, however, clinched, for all intents and purposes ,by the All-Star break as the rest of the NL Central starting thinking wild card.

When a team wins a division by so wide a margin, more attention must be paid to how it gained that early momentum. A tone was set by the Cardinals in the first half, and the player most responsible for that was Rolen. He got the big hits and made the big plays that got the Cards in a direction that led to a runaway season. Pujols and Edmonds had a major impact as well, but the player who was the cornerstone of what the Cardinals did this year was Rolen.


Cy Young Award:
A year ago, Dodgers closer Eric Gagne won because no starting pitcher was a 20-game winner. This season there is a 20-game winner, Roy Oswalt, but the choice figures to be between a couple of guys with 11 Cy Young Awards between them. Six-time winner Roger Clemens, in his first NL season, gets the edge over five-time winner Randy Johnson, but it’s closer than you might think.
Entering Saturday night’s start, Johnson led the league in strikeouts and opponents’ batting average, was second in innings and third in ERA, but his record was barely above .500, albeit for an Arizona team with the worst record in the league. Clemens has the best winning percentage, and remember that for half the season the Astros were a .500 team. Ranking in the top five in wins, strikeouts and ERA, Clemens gets the edge by winning games under circumstances far more crucial than Johnson’s.
The Giants’ Jason Schmidt, the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano and the Marlins’ Carl Pavano will get support lower on the ballot, but the Rocket and the Big Unit, with their fortysomething magic, put that field to shame.

Rookie of the Year:
The season-ending injury to Padres shortstop Khalil Greene left too big an opening for Pirates left fielder Jason Bay, who is likely to be the first Pittsburgh player and native Canadian to win the award. Unlike the AL, the field is fairly strong, with impressive debuts by Rockies second baseman Aaron Miles and outfielder Matt Holliday, Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche, Expos pitcher Chad Cordero, Padres pitcher Akinori Otsuka and Phillies pitcher Ryan Madson.

Manager of the Year:
Manager of the Half Year is easily the Astros’ Phil Garner, who replaced Jimy Williams at the All-Star break and got Houston back into playoff contention despite losing pitchers Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller to injury. Over the long haul, the Braves’ Bobby Cox and the Cardinals’ Tony La Russa did their usual masterful work, which makes this a tough call. Since he was bypassed in other deserving seasons, the vote here is for Cox.

How the baseball awards balloting in the American League should go:

Most Valuable Player:
It’s another tight race, though not as open as last season, when 10 players received first-place votes. Red Sox left fielder Manny Ramirez and DH David Ortiz were in that hunt in 2003, when Alex Rodriguez, then with the Rangers, wound up on top playing for a last-place team, and the teammates are in the chase again.

What is likely to happen is that Ramirez, the AL home run leader and third in RBIs, and Ortiz, second in RBIs and tied for second in home runs, will cancel each other out by splitting votes. That would improve the chances of the other chief candidates, right fielders Vladimir Guerrero of the Angels and Gary Sheffield of the Yankees.

Guerrero improved his chances greatly with that 14-for-18 series against the Rangers. He’s among the league leaders in eight major offensive categories and is the best fielder of those in contention. Guerrero was under the radar during his National League days with the Expos, but has flourished with a big-market contender.

Sheffield, third in the NL MVP vote last season behind Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols, may not have as glaringly attractive numbers as the others, but he gets the nod for coming through in the clutch regularly for a team that set a record for comeback victories.

Since the All-Star break, Sheffield has hit four home runs off closers that either put the Yankees ahead or tied the score, a solid example of carrying an offense. He leads the Yankees in RBIs and runs and is among the AL leaders in outfield assists. The Yankees’ MVP drought during the Joe Torre era should end this year.

Cy Young Award:
Curt Schilling had to play second fiddle to Diamondbacks teammate Randy Johnson when it came to NL Cy Young Award voting in the past, and it had been feared he might do the same with Red Sox teammate Pedro Martinez in the AL. Martinez’s September swoon took him out of the picture, but Schilling ran into a buzz saw in Twins left-hander Johan Santana.
Santana won his last 13 decisions, a stretch that included a scoreless streak of 33 innings. Along the way, Santana, who has not lost since July 11, broke Bert Blyleven’s team record for strikeouts. Santana is the league leader in strikeouts and ERA. Opponents hit a league-low .192 against him.
Schilling has one more victory than Santana and is second in ERA and third in strikeouts. It can be argued that Schilling faces tougher competition in the AL East than Santana does in the Central, but Schilling also has better offensive support. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who broke his own team record for saves, may get some consideration, but this is essentially a two-pitcher race, with Santana slightly more deserving.

Rookie of the Year:
Athletics shortstop Bobby Crosby didn’t hit for a high average and struck out a lot (140), but he had some pop (57 extra-base hits) and did an excellent job filling the void left by Miguel Tejada’s departure to free agency and Baltimore.
This was supposed to be Twins catcher Joe Mauer’s year, but he hurt his knee early in the season and played in fewer than 40 games. Crosby is the clear choice in a lean field that includes Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios and pitchers Daniel Cabrera of the Orioles and Shingo Takatsu of the White Sox.

Manager of the Year:
The award often goes to a manager who gets his team to over-achieve, which would give the Rangers’ Buck Showalter a leg up. Texas entered Saturday with 87 victories, not bad considering the state of its rotation. But finishing third in a four-team division doesn’t rank alongside winning three consecutive division titles, which is why this vote goes to the Twins’ Ron Gardenhire. The Twins had several key players hurt at times and dominated the division despite not having a lot of depth. Gardenhire helped develop a first-rate closer in Giants castoff Joe Nathan and groomed Santana through a breakout season.