Oil depletion farther away than expected, geologist says

By Rory Sa

The world’s oil is in no danger of running out any time soon, Marlan Downey, a geologist and former oil industry executive said Tuesday night.

“ I have no basis whatsoever to disagree with anyone’s forecast that we’re going to be running out of petroleum tomorrow,” Downey said,” except I can tell you that every such forecast since 1936 has been wrong.”

Downey, a former president of ARCO International and the former vice president of Shell U.S., discussed how science may solve the energy needs of the world during a lecture at the Smittcamp Alumni House.

“ Some say we’re at end of petrol age,” Downey said. “We didn’t leave the stone age because we’re out of stone. If we leave, it’ll be because we found things better designed for our affluent society.”

Despite Downey’s views on the world oil supply, he didn’t doubt the world faces energy problems.

“ If you want to go back to caves and eat carrion then I can tell you we don’t have energy problems,” he said.

Downey said technology can solve scientific aspects of energy problems, but can do nothing to solve what he called “political and people problems.”

Raising the national tax on gasoline as little as five cents per gallon would encourage people to reduce gasoline consumption, Downey said. “Nobody is going to stop buying SUVs unless it hurts their pocketbooks.”

Downy also discussed alternative energy sources including hydrogen, nuclear and renewable forms of energy.

It would take at least 50 years for technology to reach the point where a hydrogen gas industry became efficient enough, he said.

Downey noted that President Bush dedicated $15 million to study hydrogen.

“ If you did that per day for about a decade you might get someplace,” he said.

Downey touted nuclear plants as “wonderful ways of generating energy,” despite political and attitudinal problems, towards them.

Despite changes new forms of energy technology will bring, Downey said people’s attitudes towards the technology will cause the most change.

“ Technology can easily improve the mileage of a small car to a hundred miles a gallon,” he said, “but what technology can’t do is buy and drive those cars.”