Fresno State football is off to its worst six-game start in the last five years. The Bulldogs are ranked dead last in Western Athletic Conference scoring defense, sixth out of eight in total offense and are coming off the worst whipping in Bulldog Stadium history.
Internally, the formal affairs conducted by the football program are kept relatively close to the vest, as holds true with almost every program from Hawaii to Maine. But internal affairs can’t drown out public interest, and plenty are interested in a change of leadership.
Blame it on the simplistic play calling or the dwindling attendance over the years from the home opener to senior night, but some are beginning to grumble that it may be time to show coach Pat Hill the door.
After all, pointing the finger and canning the head coach in major college football seems to be a favorable trend across the nation. Arizona just fired Mike Stoops on Monday after the Wildcats dropped 10 straight Football Bowl Subdivision games dating back to last season. Likewise, New Mexico gave its head coach Mike Locksley the boot because, well, when you win just two of your 28 games while in charge, D-Day is on its way.
While the Bulldog faithful are over seeing questionable calls in crucial situations, or brutal beat downs from formidable opponents, consider some of the following before calling for Hill’s departure.
Since that 2006 season that Fresno State started off a disastrous 1-7, 108 coaching changes have happened, some fired, some moved on or retired, etc. Of those 100-and-change, only 34 schools have posted winning records in their first season with a new coach. That’s 31 percent for those of you without a calculator. Moreover, 45 of those 108 coaching changes occurred in the past two seasons.
Those 45 changes have seen just four immediate winning records. That’s 8 percent, ya’ll.
Hill’s 14-plus seasons at the helm need to be addressed with the begging question of could we really do better?
We could hire internally, but what good would an understudy be for a coach some people are unsatisfied with? We could play the market, but let’s weigh some available options. There’s Mike Leach, but what are the chances that pirate lover is going to want to go from the Big 12 to the Mountain West Conference? There’s Rich Rodriguez, but let’s face it: yeah…right. Rich Rod was leading a school that leads college football in wins a year ago. Not happening.
Every so often mid-major programs like Boise State and TCU will find diamonds in the rough such as Chris Petersen and Gary Patterson. But for every Petersen and Patterson there are as many big names in big places that just don’t get it done.
Hiring and firing coaches is a lot like what drives college football programs to the Bowl Championship Series or into the ground: recruiting. Coaches want to go to a place they feel they can succeed, just like recruits do. Facilities, reputation and administration are the bait on the hook, and let’s face it, Fresno State isn’t quite bringing in prize marlins with any of these.
For a mid-major program, Fresno State is doing relatively well, but before you decide Pat Hill’s win-loss record this season calls for change, ask yourself if we could realistically do better?
I say no.
jon • Nov 7, 2011 at 10:07 am
Well I believe it is time…. Why doesn’t fresno state push hard for mike leach… Let him bring his spread offense and throw the ball. They have good speed at the wr position and new emerging red zone threat in victor dean. Why not try it? Where there are now is not working. The only way pat hill could stay is if he evolves his offense to alittle more passing when he has a small back like rouse otherwise its going to be the same year in and year out
REAL Fresno State Fans • Oct 28, 2011 at 11:40 am
THE UGLY BULLDOG TRUTH
Here are the REAL stats that the Fresno State Athletic Department DOESN’T want you to know.
Fresno State, under 15 seasons of Pat Hill (1997-2011 as of 10/26/11):
Total Games Played = 187 games (1997-current 2011)
111 – 76 with a 59% WINNING percentage.
Teams FSU beat that had a WINNING record (over .500% the year we beat them) = 23 out of 187!
which means……ONLY 12.2% of the teams Fresno State has won in the past 15 years had a winning record!!!
OUCH!!!
I BELIEVE THE LAST 10 SEASONS ARE ARE IRRELEVANT. HERE’S THE PROOF:
PAT HILL – LAST 10 SEASONS (2002-current 2011)
TOTAL Games Played = 125 games
Teams FSU beat that had a WINNING record (over .500% the year we beat them) = 12
which means……ONLY 10.4% of the teams Fresno State has won in the past 10 years had a winning record!!!
OUCH!!!
BCS /AQ GAMES
FSU has played 46 AQ (Automatic Qualifier) games against teams from BCS conferences (1997-current 2011).
Hill has WON 17 out of 46 games in 15 years against AQ schools.
Thats 36% of ALL BCS GAMES PAT HILL WINS. Not a bad stat, but not great. 1 out of 3 games he wins against AQ schools.
Now, here is where it gets WORSE.
Of Hill’s 17 AQ BCS wins, ONLY 7 OF THE 17 TEAMS HE BEAT WERE OVER .500 THE YEAR HE BEAT THEM!!! That’s ONLY 15% of those WINS were QUALITY VICTORIES.
Ouch!!!!!
TO SUM IT ALL UP:
Pat Hill can ONLY beat CUPCAKE TEAMS.
Although he wins 59% of ALL his games, ONLY 12% of those teams HAD WINNING RECORDS THE YEAR HE BEAT THEM.
Although he won 17 out of 46 games against AQ / BCS teams, ONLY 15% of those teams HAD WINNING RECORDS THE YEAR HE BEAT THEM.
Hill averages 5 losses per year
Hill averages THIRD place in the WAC EVERY YEAR
0 WAC Championships* (1 three-way tie. Whoopty-doo)
0-15 vs. his last TOP 25 Team opponents
LOST to Boise St. the last 5 years. Outscored 72-254
It’s time to move on Bulldogs. We need new life in this program. Pat Hill HAS NOT, CAN NOT, WILL NOT get it done.
Alfred Leal • Oct 25, 2011 at 8:29 pm
Coach Pat Hill becomes irritated when questioned by his critics insisting we be satisfied with a less than medocre record, Fresno fans respond by not attending games, how long can fresno state tolerate this situation?
Ben Ingersoll, Editor in Chief • Oct 18, 2011 at 2:44 pm
“sam”
Thank you for the comment and awareness of the typo with .8%. It will be fixed online.
Brian • Oct 15, 2011 at 2:31 pm
This will be answered by more of us walking with our wallet. The writing is on the wall, whether coach can turn it around or not is irrelevant, the fans are over it, we will find how fast the turnaround is, but it is past the point of a possibility, this is now imminent.
sam • Oct 14, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Your reasoning is exactly why Pat Hill is still here. Oh we should be lucky to have him, we can’t do any better, etc. You’ll only know if you can do better if you try. If you’re a failure but never try to suceed then obviously you won’t. Programs like Boise have nothing on Fresno State, except at some point they sought change, took a gamble and it paid off. There is no gaurantee that the next coach will be the diamond in the rough, but you wont find that diamond if you never attempt to look. So if mediocrity is your goal, then stick with the status quo, if your goal is somewhat loftier then roll the dice. The schools that are successful did exactly that, even the percentage that didn’t have winning records after making a change, at least they had the guts to try (btw how is 4 out of 45, .8%? Try 8%, not that it matters, since the stats are inconsequential). Bottom line, this school and its fans need to “man up” and stop suffering from dillusions that the way things are going is “ok.”