Breakdown: Bulldogs
Under head coach Pat Hill, the Fresno State football team has gone 4-6 in bowl games that includes impressive wins over four Bowl Championship Series schools. But against non-BCS opponents, the Bulldogs are 0-5.
Quarterback Ryan Colburn will try to become the first senior signal caller to close out his career victorious since Jeff Tedford did so nearly three decades ago.
Colburn is coming off two memorable home performances after leading the ‘Dogs to the game winning drive against Idaho, and torching the Illinois secondary for 304 yards and three touchdowns in the 25-23 season-finale win at Bulldog Stadium on senior night.
Northern Illinois boasts a pass defense that has picked off 16 interceptions while holding passers to a 57.3 completion percentage.
With a solid secondary, expect Fresno State to rely on the ground game. Running back Robbie Rouse returns after rib and hand injuries forced him to sit out the past six quarters.
The 5-foot-7-inch, 185 pound Rouse leads the team in rushing with 1,097 yards and eight touchdowns. Like usual, expect Hill to lead with the run, and then attack Northern Illinois with play-action passes.
Breakdown: Huskies
Northern Illinois might be playing without their head coach Jerry Kill, who bolted the Huskies for Minnesota, but the players that posted a nine-game regular-season winning streak return.
The Huskies are proud owners of the top-ranked scoring offense and defense in the Mid-American Conference after going undefeated in conference play at 8-0. But Northern Illinois then suffered a heart-breaking loss to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC Championship game.
Running back Chad Spann leads an explosive offense that is seventh in the nation in rushing, averaging nearly 265 yards and more than 37 points per game.
The MAC Offensive Player of the Year tops the conference and team with 1,293 yards and 20 touchdowns. As productive as Spann has been this season, the senior bruiser has not ran for more than 100 yards since late October.
But Spann is not the only threat for the Huskies on the ground. Quarterback Chandler Harnish is second on the team in rushing with 764 yards and five touchdowns. The junior is also efficient as a passer, completing over 64 percent of his passes for 2,230 yards with 20 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
The duo of Harnish and Spann might spell trouble for Fresno State, but the Bulldogs have improved dramatically against spread-option type teams.
Chris Carter, the Western Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year, and the defense will have their hands full in containing Northern Illinois’ high-octane offense.
Keys to Victory
1. Colburn closes
Fresno State has not had a senior quarterback close out his career with a bowl victory since 1982, giving Ryan Colburn a big-stage opportunity against the Huskies’ stingy pass defense.
2. Finish in the fourth
The Bulldogs’ last two bowl games have been lost after Fresno State gave up fourth-quarter leads. Northern Illinois knows how to close out games after outscoring its opponents in the fourth quarter in all but two games this season.
3. Defense stays on track
Easily the most improved unit from last season to this season has been the Bulldog defensive unit, which boasts the WAC Defensive Player of the Year in Chris Carter. Holding the Huskies’ spread offensive attack, which averaged 446 yards per game in the regular season.
Position match-ups
Player to watch: Chris Carter, defensive end
When Fresno State runs: Advantage — Even
The Northern Illinois defense has allowed just two backs to gain over 100 yards on it all season, but Fresno State gets Robbie Rouse back healthy. Rouse and the ‘Dogs have had a two-week break to prepare for the bowl game.
When Northern Illinois runs: Advantage — Northern Illinois
The Huskies have the top running back in the MAC in Chad Spann, who rushed for nearly 1,300 yards in the regular season. While the Bulldogs’ run defense is much improved, it still has shown some soft spots against elite backs.
When Fresno State passes: Advantage – Fresno State
It will be Ryan Colburn’s final game in Bulldog red, and surely the Visalia, Calif. native will look to be on his game against a Northern Illinois secondary that surrendered 333 passing yards to Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship game.
When Northern Illinois passes: Advantage — Fresno State
The Huskies make their name mostly on the ground. Northern Illinois quarterback Chandler Harnish averaged just 186 yards through the air in the regular season and hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards once this season.
Special teams: Advantage — Fresno State
Fresno State kicker Kevin Goessling has been money recently, connecting on his last seven field goal attempts, including from 52 yards out against Illinois. On the contrary, Huskies’ kicker Michael Cklamovski has struggled, hitting just two of his last five attempts.
Blue Turf bowl battle: Breaking down the Huskies
Player to watch: Chad Spann, running back
Wins againt: North Dakota, Minnesota, Akron, Temple, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan,
Toledo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan
Losses to: Iowa State, Illinois, Miami (OH)
Head coach: Tom Matukewicz (interim coach for departed Jerry Kill)
Offense: Multiple
Defense: 4-3
Key Players: RB Chad Spann, QB Chandler Harnish, CB Tyrone Clark
Series record: Series tied 2-2
Last meeting: Fresno State won 55-7 in 1991
Point Spread: Huskies favored by 1.5 points
Editor’s Prediction: Fresno State 31, Northern Illinois 27