Perhaps nothing in sports is more overanalyzed than the now three-day long NFL Draft.

For days, weeks and months on end, so-called “experts” studied, examined and debated what team would pick who and how that player would transition from college to the big show.

There’s only one problem with all of this: They are essentially debating the unknown. Determining what players will make the successful leap to the “League” is like flipping a coin and arguing with a friend which side it will land on. What it all boils down to is the NFL Draft has to be just about the most unpredictable thing in sports that everyone seems to think they have a firm grasp on.

In the 1998 NFL Draft, experts toyed with which quarterback would ultimately be taken with the top overall pick. The choices: Peyton Manning from Tennessee and Ryan Leaf from Washington. Both seemed like perfect fits for either of the top two picks, which belonged to Indianapolis and San Diego. In the end, Peyton Manning went first overall, while Ryan Leaf fell to second. Leaf became the league’s laughingstock. Now Leaf on to fill police reports with drug charges while Peyton Manning is rewriting NFL history books.

More recently, in 2005, the San Francisco 49ers sat at the top of the draft quarterbackless. Utah’s Alex Smith was labeled a “natural leader” who “stays away from mistakes,” according to Sports Illustrated. In that same draft room in New York sat California’s Aaron Rodgers who the same experts said “lacks pocket stature” and “must improve his accuracy.” Today Alex Smith has a 37-to-43 touchdown-to-interception ratio, has been benched in favor of such guys as Shaun Hill and J.T. O’Sullivan. The Green Bay Packers stole Rodgers with the 24th overall pick, after he sat in a nearly empty draft room embarrassed for being picked after 23 others.

How did Rodgers respond? He threw 28 touchdowns in 2008, his first year as a starter, and was selected to the NFL Pro Bowl last year after tossing 30 scores.

Are you starting to see a pattern?

The NFL Draft is about as predictable as JaMarcus Russell’s future. Mel Kiper, an ESPN NFL Draft expert, said about the 2007 draft bust, “Jamarcus Russell’s going to immediately energize that Raider Nation, that fan base, that football team- on the practice field, in that locker room- three years from now you could be looking at a guy that’s certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league.”

So, if you think this year your team scored big last week and the doomed days are over, remember a few things. Rookies are still rookies. What they did in college no longer matters. And wait a few years before you believe “experts.”